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Can it be concluded that if there is a 50% chance of contracting a communicable disease through contact with an infected person, that there would be a 100% chance of contracting the disease if two contacts were made with the Infected Person?
Can someone please help me explain the answer to this. I’m not sure.
I think NO. Because the events are not mutually dependent on each other. But I am not sure. Can Someone please Help.
Let's change the story. Suppose you have an airplane with two engines, and each engine has 50% chance of failure during a flight. So in two flights you probably would have one failure, but that does not mean you add the two chances.
In one flight you have 50% chance of failure. If there is no failure then you make a second flight and you have 50% chance of failure. But in two flights you have 50% x 2 = 100% chance of failure. It is not 50% + 50%, it is 2 x 50%, meaning two bets with 50% odds. In four flights you would expect 4 x 50% = 200% which means two failures.
All the figures are the same, but there is not the emotional attachment to sickness as in your example.
