Which is better? 2 times 50% chance of success or 1 times 80% chance of success?Taking into account that the 50% chance cost $50 and the 80% chance cost $100. I know its a 75% chance of success with the 2x50% chance but if you take the money into account, which is better?
Statistical question?
Details:
Added 3+ months ago:
Alright, I know my question sound weird but heres whats my intending query. Lets say I succeed in the first 50% chance, I spent $50 , thus earning me $50 as the 80% chance of success cost $100 dollars. If I were to put the question to a more extreme manner such as 4 times 50% chance of success(93.75% of total success) with each tries costing $25 while a 1 times 94% chance of success with each tries costing $100. Which would result in me saving me more money in the long run?
I would like to know if there is a direct correlation interms of saving money and the amount of percentage chance and tries.
Responses (2)
You are confusing English with math. What exactly does "2 times 50% chance of success" mean? If you bet on the toss of a coin and win on the first toss, you don't need a second toss. So then your statement is meaningless. Two tosses of one coin lead to four possible conclusions, so you can analyze all possible conditions easily enough. Your confusion happens because you are trying to force those four conditions into one toss. Figure out what exactly you are talking about and the answer becomes clear.
You need to take a class in statistics so you can learn the words. I do not understand what your question is.
I guess my question was kinda confusing to you but it has nothing to do with needing to take a class in Statistic to answer. I was just asking if you would take a double 50% chance of success(in anything) or a 80% chance of success(in anything). Anyway I've got my answer. Thanks for the prompt reply.
Alright, I got my answer to the question.
On average, you'll need to use 1/0.5=2 of the 50% type to get a success, or 1/0.8=1.25 of the 80% type to get a success. Your expected cost for the 50% type would be $100, while the expected cost for the 80% type is $125. Thus
The confusion lies with the 75% chance of success. I forget to factor in the fact that the 75% chance of success includes a 25% chance of also getting double success.
Alright, I will make it a more direct question.
1) 50%chance of success in successfully enchanting scroll(cost 100million game currency)
2) 80% chance of success in successfully enchanting scroll(cost 200million game currency)
Which would you buy if you wish to save more game currency in the long run as in I wish to enchant a bunch of game equipment.