How does one ensure success in a chosen career?

Success requires chance, luck, hard work, skill, and more. Thus you can't guarranty a success in s.th. that requires you to take a chance. Put all your effort and alot of time and money into a business idea or venture.
Chance-taking is required for success and prohibits a guarranty. Hence, success can only be guarranteed if there's no chance of failure. But what kind of success is that? How much success can that be?
Wait! Maybe there is a way to ensure your success in business. That would be to aim low. Only try for the meager things you are absolutely sure you will succeed at. This is not the fabric with which America was built. The U.S. was built on s.th. with more of an adventurous spirit. Grab onto that ideal and after you have taken your chances, the success will be so sweet! I wish you the best!