After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.
Period Actual Period Actual
1 218 6 263
2 226 7 274
3 220 8 282
4 248 9 285
5 257 10
Use α=.5 and β=.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)
t Period TAFt
6
7
8
9
10